Candidates for the explanation of this phenomenon of "over-saving"
Without claiming to be exhaustive, we put forward 5 possible explanations for this “over-saving” behavior.
A precautionary motive that goes beyond concerns about the economic cycle
From a macroeconomic point of view, precautionary savings are traditionally linked to a degraded economic cycle, in particular a period of rising unemployment rates that would generate fears among households of lower future income. However, the unemployment rate has been falling since mid-2023 and at a relatively low level. The positive trend in the labor market does not, however, invalidate the precautionary motive as a cause of "over-saving" behavior. The thailand phone number list fear of a less generous future than expected , in a context of observed structural decline (illustrated by the break in trend growth of GDP per capita compared to the United States and by a break in the growth trend of past decades, Figure 5 ) and a questioned future (change in the geopolitical context, cost of the TEE, etc.) remains a plausible explanation.
The context of public finances is deteriorating (which is captured by the modeling), but the awareness of a very high level of Debt/GDP can exacerbate the Ricardian reflex of short-term savings in order to ward off future tax increases (increase in the historical coefficient of the modeling). In addition, the subject of the level of future pensions, not captured in the modeling, is a serious explanatory candidate, as the public debate develops on the subject: the decline in the standard of living, illustrated here by a projection from the Pensions Advisory Council of June 2024, can explain a reflex of savings in anticipation of lower future income ( Graph 6) .