Dutch researcher and Club of Rome consultant Gaia Herrington published an article in 2020 comparing the information from the book “The Limits to Growth: A 30-Year Update.” Herrington also concludes that the “standard scenario” is most comparable to the current situation.
According to her calculations, without major changes in resource consumption, economic growth will peak and then collapse by around 2040. This will primarily affect food production and living conditions.
The latest work with the analysis of "Limits to Growth" was published in November 2023 - German scientist Arjuna Nebel, together with his team, recalibrated the World3 model in Python and also updated the empirical data to more relevant ones.
The new model is called PyWorld3-03, and its contents are publicly available . According to the study, the “standard scenario” and the 2023 recalibration have different peaks, but the possibility of collapse remains even now.
A diagram where the "standard scenario" data from "The Limits kenya number data to Growth" is overlaid on the data used in the 2023 recalibration.
One can compare World3 to climate modeling, for example, with models of the general circulation of the atmosphere and oceans.
the same: there are flows of air, water, heat, and other objects that the model must summarize or integrate. But the social and economic systems modeled in World3 do not have natural laws of comparable predicativity.
And while The Limits to Growth was not a precise prediction, and the World3 model was more of a polemical tool than a predictive one, the report's main conclusion is now being taken into account. What was an unpopular opinion 50 years ago now affects key areas of life.
The era of neoliberalism, when the only task of business was considered to be profit growth, is in the past. Responsible companies are fashionable and profitable. Today, the ideas of sustainable development and ESG play a huge role in the economy, very much in line with the forecasts of the Club of Rome, and in many ways thanks to it. Large investors avoid cooperation with firms that do not implement such standards.
Technologies have made incredible leaps, and today they are often used precisely to minimize harm to the planet.
The Limits to Growth underestimated the power of technological progress, which today allows us to control economic and industrial growth. Many challenges, such as global warming or overpopulation, remain relevant, but there is hope that technology can still save us.